Forecast

Does this research were conducted in the following 4 questions to a total of 77 respondents: 1. your organization keeps you formal track to the level of accuracy of the forecast? 2 If so does your organization a target for the level of accuracy of forecasting? Do 3 If your organization has a target for the level of accuracy of the forecast, as it is configured and defined? 4. David Zaslav addresses the importance of the matter here. What type of metric usa to measure the level of accuracy? 83% Of respondents replied in affirmative way to the first question, however only 79% of them reported a target for the level of accuracy of the forecast. To inquire about this answer there comments that reflects that for some the prognosis is a Plan that is part of the budget process as opposed to demand or supply chain planning. As one of the respondents scored conducted a follow-up of our income operational (sales) vs our forecast, but we didn’t know that we had a different 100% accuracy target. The objective of level of forecast accuracy is determined in many ways, although it predominates as a target determined by the direction. Determined by the 41% direction reference for the industry 22% from an analysis of the forecast 21% other 16% many of the comments for those who selected another, were for example better than last year, others were mentioned as a process of continuous improvement, a third part took the indicator of improvement of the immediately preceding year.

It is clear that they all worked with the forecast performance measures. All these comments indicate that maybe a good place to start to determine a target for the level of accuracy of the forecast is: compare as did the current cycle with the previous one. That type of metric used to measure the level of accuracy? With respect to the metric used to measure the level of accuracy of the forecast, the vast majority say utilizing measures of percentage in relation to the measures in units. 89% of respondents use the MAPE (mean absolute of the percentage of Error), WMAPE (average absolute percentage of Error weighted), an acceptable range of (+/-X %), some say that the MAPE and the WMAPE are measures of error, therefore they use (1-MAPE) to report the accuracy of the forecast. The comments at the end of the survey could underline that analysts need to analyze the metrics as a point of reference for continuous improvement. It should be noted that the tendency is to focus their efforts to identify opportunities for improvement that exist around the trend and forecast tracking. For more information about this topic, or issues please contact us at or visit project in prognosis and planning of the original demand author and source of the article.

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